Stranger in a Strange Land was published 49 years ago, and it included robo-cabs. Flying robo-cabs, no less. And I’m sure it wasn’t the first. Come on, science — if I can’t have a flying car yet, at least hurry up with the self-driving one! 😉
Stranger in a Strange Land was published 49 years ago, and it included robo-cabs. Flying robo-cabs, no less. And I’m sure it wasn’t the first. Come on, science — if I can’t have a flying car yet, at least hurry up with the self-driving one! 😉
Except the takeoff and landing, most planes are more or less self-flying and are computer assisted even then. The space shuttle flies, from takeoff to landing, entirely by computer. The main thing blocking self-driving cars is the insurance industry, you see, if they drive themselves, it becomes difficult to figure out who’s at fault. (The driver, the computer programs, the car, etc.?)
As a software developer, I reluctantly have to side with the insurance industry on that one. Driving a car is one of those tasks where a human brain is just a lot better than any software we’ve come up with, specifically because there’s so much room for unexpected events.
Now, if we had true artificial intelligence, capable of dealing with those unexpected events in a way that is usually equal or superior to how a human would, that would be another story…
The question is, will the computer fail more than people do stupid things on the road? Trains are often computer operated, planes can be, spacecraft definitely are. Yes, cars, as currently constituted, are a bit of a special case, but its only a matter of time before computers are more reliable at it than people, even with bugs and errors. Will more people be killed by drunk drivers, or defective software? That’s the real issue, not whether a perfect program can be built.
Keep in mind of course, that the software isn’t being written by Microsoft, it seems to be written by Google. If it is written by MS, all bets are off. 😉
That’s logically the only question, but this problem isn’t subject solely to logic. People like to be in control of their lives and surroundings, and usually have an inflated opinion of their own skills.
(An example: someone recently came up with a checklist for surgeons, of the steps they had to take before surgery, because it has been discovered that many surgeons forget steps occasionally. When asked whether they should be forced by hospital policy to use them, something like two-thirds of surgeons said no. But when those same surgeons were asked whether another surgeon, who was about to operate on them or their loved ones, should be forced to use them, 98% said yes. Think about it.)
Computers have to be so much better at driving than people that having a person at the wheel starts to look as irresponsible as a game of Russian roulette, before the general populace will accept computer-driven cars. And that’s not going to happen any time soon.
(You’ll know when it starts to happen because insurance companies will start giving discounts for computer-driven vehicles. Nothing motivates most people like money.)